Stephen Harper seems like a pretty bright guy - probably too bright for his own good - so I'm guessing he isn't going to be spending much time redecorating his new home on Sussex Drive. Oh, sure, his 10-year-old son will put up some hockey posters and his 7-year-old daughter will move in her Cinderella doodads. But Mom and Pop Harper will likely keep a lot of things in boxes for a while yet. Because if there is one obvious message coming out of Monday's election results, it is that our new PM shouldn't get too comfortable in the big chair, because at any moment the springs will start popping through and jabbing him in the butt.
I have decided that I like Stephen Harper, although I don't trust him, and I think he could make a good Prime Minister. But it took a few deals with the devil to get here, and Satan always collects. Monday's results are more a condemnation of the Liberals than an endorsement of the Conservatives, and to interpret it as anything else would be folly. Harper is in the unfortunate position of having to get the support of the Bloc in order to govern. Oh, he may be able to do a few things here and there without them, although only if he has the seal of approval of the Liberals. The NDP, for all their gains, can neither preserve Harper nor bring him down. But this union is doomed before it even begins. The Bloc and the Conservative's Reform precursor both exist because of people who felt screwed by Brian Mulroney, but for vastly different reasons. Let's see them come to some sort of consensus for any extended time.
In the end, Harper's election will probably be the best thing to happen to the Liberals in two generations. Canadians by and large consider ourselves to be open-minded and progressive, which is divergent from the Conservative's western and rural base. But we are also fiscally pragmatic, eliminating the NDP as a real factor nationally. Which is why the only Conservative to gain any real power (let's ignore Joe Clark for the moment) was the red Tory Mulroney. And which is also why the Liberals usually hold power, given their reputed balance of being fiscally conservative and socially progressive. Their defeat this time is a message that they have gotten away from that. In the next year or two, they will elect a new leader and create fresh policy free from the pressures of ruling. When the time is right, they will unite with the Bloc to bring Harper down, and sweep back into power with a fresh majority. The only things that can stop them are to move too hastily in their desire for power, or if Harper can somehow figure out a way to not fall off the tightrope that he has been standing on for the last two months.
I hope he has a net to land on.
* * * * *
Toronto, of course, elected not one Conservative, which suggests a future screwing by the new government. Given the population of the GTA and our position as the centre of the Canadian financial universe, Harper and company would have to be fools to do any such thing.
* * * * *
My riding re-elected our Liberal MP, and I have no problems with that since she is a good advocate for the community. It was also nice to see my boyhood hero, Ken Dryden, get back in. I read on the weekend that he still gets asked for autographs while campaigning. He's being touted as a possible leadership candidate, along with Allan Rock, Frank McKenna, John Manley, Brian Tobin, Belinda Stronach and (?) Bob Rae. I like Dryden, but don't see him as the man for the top job, especially if McKenna jumps in. But the oddest possible contender is Michael Ignatieff. The guy hasn't even lived here for 30 years and now he wants to run the country. Unless the business community decides they want him - and why would they with such obviously superior candidates available - Ignatieff would just be throwing his money away, unless it were his intention to become a kingmaker in a close race, which might just be worth it.
* * * * *
And I still like the Barenaked Ladies, but Steven Page supports Jack and Olivia, and is clearly not nearly as bright as I gave him credit for.
I have decided that I like Stephen Harper, although I don't trust him, and I think he could make a good Prime Minister. But it took a few deals with the devil to get here, and Satan always collects. Monday's results are more a condemnation of the Liberals than an endorsement of the Conservatives, and to interpret it as anything else would be folly. Harper is in the unfortunate position of having to get the support of the Bloc in order to govern. Oh, he may be able to do a few things here and there without them, although only if he has the seal of approval of the Liberals. The NDP, for all their gains, can neither preserve Harper nor bring him down. But this union is doomed before it even begins. The Bloc and the Conservative's Reform precursor both exist because of people who felt screwed by Brian Mulroney, but for vastly different reasons. Let's see them come to some sort of consensus for any extended time.
In the end, Harper's election will probably be the best thing to happen to the Liberals in two generations. Canadians by and large consider ourselves to be open-minded and progressive, which is divergent from the Conservative's western and rural base. But we are also fiscally pragmatic, eliminating the NDP as a real factor nationally. Which is why the only Conservative to gain any real power (let's ignore Joe Clark for the moment) was the red Tory Mulroney. And which is also why the Liberals usually hold power, given their reputed balance of being fiscally conservative and socially progressive. Their defeat this time is a message that they have gotten away from that. In the next year or two, they will elect a new leader and create fresh policy free from the pressures of ruling. When the time is right, they will unite with the Bloc to bring Harper down, and sweep back into power with a fresh majority. The only things that can stop them are to move too hastily in their desire for power, or if Harper can somehow figure out a way to not fall off the tightrope that he has been standing on for the last two months.
I hope he has a net to land on.
* * * * *
Toronto, of course, elected not one Conservative, which suggests a future screwing by the new government. Given the population of the GTA and our position as the centre of the Canadian financial universe, Harper and company would have to be fools to do any such thing.
* * * * *
My riding re-elected our Liberal MP, and I have no problems with that since she is a good advocate for the community. It was also nice to see my boyhood hero, Ken Dryden, get back in. I read on the weekend that he still gets asked for autographs while campaigning. He's being touted as a possible leadership candidate, along with Allan Rock, Frank McKenna, John Manley, Brian Tobin, Belinda Stronach and (?) Bob Rae. I like Dryden, but don't see him as the man for the top job, especially if McKenna jumps in. But the oddest possible contender is Michael Ignatieff. The guy hasn't even lived here for 30 years and now he wants to run the country. Unless the business community decides they want him - and why would they with such obviously superior candidates available - Ignatieff would just be throwing his money away, unless it were his intention to become a kingmaker in a close race, which might just be worth it.
* * * * *
And I still like the Barenaked Ladies, but Steven Page supports Jack and Olivia, and is clearly not nearly as bright as I gave him credit for.
posted by George @ 12:27 p.m.
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