My Oscar predictions, offered without comment so I can get them up before the nominations are announced later this morning. I used to do this every year, but haven't in a while because I simply wasn't in tune with the movies. That, to say the least, is no longer the case. My methodology is to look at the early results of award season, with special emphasis on the Guilds and Golden Globes, as well as critics awards, reviews, "buzz" and my own gut feeling about who is "hot" or "due", shifting concepts worthy of quotation marks in this context. Although I consider my own opinions, as you'll see, ala Brokeback Mountain, they are not definitive of my choices. Historically, I've been 70 to 80% accurate in predicting the major categories. Let's see how I do this year.

FILM
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence
Crash
The Constant Gardener

Other contenders: Munich, Capote, King Kong, Walk the Line

DIRECTOR
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Paul Haggis - Crash
Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener

Other contenders: David Cronenberg - A History of Violence, Bennett Miller - Capote, Peter Jackson - King Kong

ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man

Other contender: Terence Howard - Hustle & Flow

ACTRESS
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Felicity Hoffman - Transamerica
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country

Other contenders: Laura Linney - The Squid and the Whale, Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger, Naomi Watts - King Kong

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon - Crash
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney - Syriana
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Other contenders: Frank Langella - Good Night, and Good Luck, Don Cheadle - Crash, Terence Howard - Crash, Ed Harris - A History of Violence, Mickey Rourke - Sin City

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Frances McDormand - North Country

Other contenders: Maria Bello - A History of Violence, Scarlett Johansson - Match Point, Thandie Newton - Crash

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Squid and the Whale
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
Match Point
Cinderella Man

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Capote
Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
The Constant Gardener
Syriana

We'll see how smart I am in a few hours.